Penerapan Metode Arima Box-Jenkins Untuk Peramalan Konsumsi Listrik

  • Titik Rahmawati, ms Universitas Jenderal Achmad Yani, Yogyakarta
  • Landung Sudarmana Universitas Jenderal Achmad Yani, Yogyakarta
  • Agung Priyanto Universitas Jenderal Achmad Yani, Yogyakarta

Abstract

Electric energy consumption in Indonesia is increasing following the growth of national economy. The

rise of activities that need electric energy must be well managed and anticipated. Thus, forecasting of

electricity demand in the near future should be considered. One of forecasting methods that has often

been used is ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) time series. This paper aims to

explain how to use ARIMA method to forecast electricity energy consumption in a particular area

along with its accuracy. The data source supplied to the method is secondary data from PLN

(Perusahaan Listrik Negara). For period of 5 years of forecasting, the result shows that the best model

of ARIMA method is ARIMA (0,1,0). MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) value of the model is

0.33%, meaning that the accuracy will be 99.67%.

Keyword: konsumsi listrik, forecasting, ARIMA, MAPE

Published
2020-03-30