Penerapan Metode Arima Box-Jenkins Untuk Peramalan Konsumsi Listrik
Electric energy consumption in Indonesia is increasing following the growth of national economy. The
rise of activities that need electric energy must be well managed and anticipated. Thus, forecasting of
electricity demand in the near future should be considered. One of forecasting methods that has often
been used is ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) time series. This paper aims to
explain how to use ARIMA method to forecast electricity energy consumption in a particular area
along with its accuracy. The data source supplied to the method is secondary data from PLN
(Perusahaan Listrik Negara). For period of 5 years of forecasting, the result shows that the best model
of ARIMA method is ARIMA (0,1,0). MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) value of the model is
0.33%, meaning that the accuracy will be 99.67%.
Keyword: konsumsi listrik, forecasting, ARIMA, MAPE
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